Aryna Sabalenka’s Sabalenka US Open defence is under threat after a troubled run of form that has cut her lead at the top of the world rankings to just 434 points, with Kazakhstan’s Elena Rybakina poised to take the number one spot if results go against the two-time defending champion at Flushing Meadows.
Sabalenka arrived in New York having posted a 17-7 win-loss record since completing the Indian Wells and Miami double earlier this season, a run that included a quarter-final exit at the French Open and a fourth-round defeat at Wimbledon. According to Yahoo Sports, Sabalenka has held the world number one ranking since October 2024, a run of 99 consecutive weeks she must now fight to protect.
With 2,000 ranking points to defend at this year’s tournament and Rybakina closing fast, the stakes at Flushing Meadows could scarcely be higher for the Belarusian.
Sabalenka US Open defence clouded by mental lapses
The core of Sabalenka’s recent difficulties has been a loss of composure in matches she would ordinarily be expected to win. In Cincinnati, she led 5-1 in a first-set tie-break and 4-1 in the second set against Sara Bejlek, a 20-year-old Czech opponent, before collapsing to a 7-6 (9-7) 6-4 defeat. At Toronto, her serve crumbled in a last-16 loss to Ekaterina Alexandrova, then ranked world number 19.
The pattern stretches back to the clay-court swing. Sabalenka lost from a winning position against Hailey Baptiste in Madrid, Sorana Cirstea in Rome and, most pointedly, Diana Shnaider at Roland Garros after taking the opening set in each match.
Sabalenka has addressed the run directly. ‘I work on my mental side of the game. I’ve been trying to reset my mind and to come back stronger,’ she said in New York. ‘It’s only a matter of time for me to come back.’
Asked whether she retains confidence on the hard courts where she has built her record, she was unequivocal. ‘Absolutely. These tough lessons are definitely going to make me way, way stronger and working even harder.’
Her record at majors on hard courts underlines why she remains the player to beat. Four Grand Slam singles titles, two Australian Open and two US Open crowns, all on the surface, place her among the sport’s outstanding performers at this level. She has, however, also lost four major finals and six semi-finals.
Rybakina closing in on the top ranking
Should Sabalenka’s Flushing Meadows campaign falter, Rybakina is positioned to take over at the top. According to ESPN, Rybakina would be the second-oldest woman to make her debut at number one in WTA rankings history, at 27 years old. She can secure the ranking without winning the title if Sabalenka, Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff all fail to lift the trophy. However, Rybakina arrives in New York carrying an ankle injury sustained in the Cincinnati quarter-finals, raising questions over her fitness.
The Kazakhstani beat Sabalenka to win the Australian Open in January and has fewer ranking points to defend at this tournament, meaning the mathematics favour her even in a limited run.
Pegula, 32, has been consistent across several seasons without claiming a major title. The 2024 US Open finalist is hoping that runs to the Washington and Cincinnati finals will serve as a platform for another attempt at her home Grand Slam. Gauff, who beat Pegula to the Cincinnati title last week, won in New York in 2023 and returns with what observers have noted is greater fluidity in her serve. ‘You can just see how the depth is pretty crazy,’ Pegula said.
Beneath the leading four, the remainder of the top 10 each hold either a Grand Slam or WTA 1,000 title, a group that includes French Open winner Mirra Andreeva, Wimbledon champion Linda Noskova and six-time major winner Iga Swiatek.
On the men’s side, the absence of world number one Jannik Sinner through a knee injury and uncertainty over Carlos Alcaraz’s fitness following a four-month absence from a wrist problem has opened the draw. Novak Djokovic, a 24-time Grand Slam champion, has confirmed he has not put an ‘expiry date’ on his career and is seeking a 25th major title, which would give him the outright all-time record. Djokovic has reached at least the semi-finals in six of the past seven Slams but has not won a title since the 2023 US Open. Germany’s Alexander Zverev leads the seedings on the men’s side, while Ben Shelton and Frances Tiafoe headline the American challenge alongside 2024 finalist Taylor Fritz.
